NFL Simulator Matchup simulator · Monte Carlo · drive-level EPA model

Each simulated game plays out drive by drive from both teams' real pace. Drive outcomes (TD, FG, empty) depend on the league scoring environment and the matchup's offense-vs-defense EPA edge, regressed toward the mean (shrink 0.50). Home field adds 0.85 expected points per game (~2–3 win-probability points in a close game), each team draws game-form noise, and regulation ties go to overtime. Player lines are allocated from the team's simulated yards and touchdowns using real usage shares (pass-attempt share, target share, rush share), then converted to PPR. Data: nflverse play-by-play, players mapped to current rosters. Massey ratings are an optional snapshot.