College Football Simulator 138 FBS teams · Monte Carlo · ESPN FPI power ratings

ESPN's FPI is "points better than an average team", so it is used directly as team strength. Expected margin = 0.90 × (home FPI − away FPI) + 2.7 points of home field (0 at a neutral site). Each team's score is drawn around a 28-point college baseline with a margin standard deviation of 16 points (college games are higher-variance than the NFL's ~13.5), then ties go to overtime. Player lines are simple projections scaled by the team's simulated scoring. Massey ratings are an optional snapshot calibrated onto the FPI scale.